TRENTON, N.J. (CN) - The contest between Mikie Sherrill and Jack Ciattarelli for who becomes the Garden State's new governor may not be the flashiest race in the country, but so far it appears to be the tightest.

Since both candidates easily secured their nominations in the state primary, their campaigns have drawn national attention and have closer margins than the races for New York City mayor and Virginia governor.  

"Two months ago, I would have bet my car Sherrill would be the winner. Two weeks ago, I would have bet Ciattarelli would have won," said Matthew Hale, a political science professor at Seton Hall University. "Now, I wouldn't bet a cup of coffee on either of them."

Typically seen as a blue state, Democrats outnumber Republicans by about 800,000 in New Jersey. However, Governor Phil Murphy won over Ciattarelli in 2021 by just a few points.

GOP registration among voters also has increased in recent years, and the percentage of vote-by-mail ballots returned are higher among Republicans than Democrats.

More than ever, voters in the state identify as independents and not with either major political party, Hale said, which means independents are the ones who will likely decide who sits in the governor's mansion next year.

"If Sherrill gets her vote out then she should win," Hale said. "Ciattarelli has to play in her lane and go after those independents."

Both candidates have big hitters in their corners.

Sherrill, a former Navy helicopter pilot who won her current congressional seat in 2018, has run primarily as a fiscal moderate and has the backing of former President Barack Obama.

Ciattarelli, a businessman who ran previously for governor in 2021 and 2017, has enlisted President Donald Trump to hold tele-rallies in order to rev up support among his base.  

Sherrill hasn't shied away from slinging her own dirt, accusing Ciattarelli of killing tens of thousands of people due to his former medical publishing company downplaying opioid dangers.

She also highlighted controversial comments by a Ciattarelli advisor, who proudly claimed he didn't take "money from Jews" and called for a ban on same-sex marriages.

"This blatant antisemitism is coming from a member of Jack's inner circle," Sherrill posted on social media. "Jack could have condemned it but instead sang his praises. Absolutely disgraceful."

Polls in the last few weeks have Sherrill winning, though her lead has shrunk in each subsequent survey since the June primaries.

"The polling and vibes are telling very different stories right now," Dan Cassino, executive director of the Fairleigh Dickinson University poll, told Courthouse News. "Democrats are panicking and the GOP think they have a good shot at this."

The most recent poll, jointly released on Wednesday by Rutgers-Eagleton Institute for Politics, suggests independent voters could break for Ciattarelli. While the poll shows Sherrill with a five-point lead overall, 40% of independents would vote for Ciattarelli versus 49% for Sherrill, within the poll's margin of error.

Previous polls by Rutgers-Eagleton had Sherrill's lead over Ciattarelli originally at 20 points in late June, with the Montclair Democrat eclipsing Ciattarelli by nine points in an August poll.

According to a Quinnipiac University poll released last week, Sherrill enjoys the lead with 50% of likely voters, compared with Ciattarelli's 44%. A similar poll last month had Sherrill at 49% support and Ciattarelli at 41%.

"Voter enthusiasm will translate into turnout," said Tom Malloy, a polling analyst at Quinnipiac University. "For the moment, in that category, Ciattarelli has an edge."

The Quinnipiac poll notes Ciattarelli holds an 11% advantage among male voters while Sherrill has nearly double that lead among female voters.

The recent poll by FDU found Sherrill holds a seven-point lead over Ciattarelli. More importantly, the poll had the number of undecided voters down to 3% from 16% two months prior.

Cassino said Democrats face unknown headwinds in how many of their voters stay at home in urban areas, as they did to a degree in 2024 due to the Israel-Palestine conflict. "We don't know how many of those voters are coming back to the polls," he said.

Money also tells the tale of a close race. Recent state data show this year's race could be the first to surpass $200 million in fundraising, with more than $47 million raised after the $145 million raised during the primaries.

Both candidates are similar in how much money they raised - $16.5 million for Ciattarelli, and $17.5 million for Sherrill - though political action committee fundraising has broken more for the Democrats.

The "Trump factor" may also be the lynchpin for the election, particularly after the president "terminated" federal funding for the Gateway commuter rail tunnel under the Hudson River.

Ciattarelli said the tunnel "is critical" to the state and that he would "fight to get it done," but he hasn't criticized Trump over the threat. "It's a tough place for him to be," Hale said.

The result of the gubernatorial race likely won't portend what to expect in next year's midterm elections, Cassino said, noting that mail-in vote tallies currently show Democrats with a larger lead than in 2021 but enthusiasm on Election Day will determine the result.

Source: Courthouse News Service